"The Fall of Obasa: A Cautionary Tale for Lagos Politicians Who Defy Asiwaju’s Playbook

 

Despite earning a degree in political science, my observations of Lagos State politics have shown that theoretical understanding pales in comparison to the lived realities of political power. Asiwaju has demonstrated unparalleled political acumen, remaining dominant in the state for over 26 years. His ability to stay ahead of his contemporaries, consistently outmaneuvering rivals within his sphere of influence, displays a mastery that warrants detailed study far beyond a single article.

What fascinates me most is not just Tinubu’s foresight and strategy but the recurring missteps of those within his inner circle. His protégés, despite their proximity to his political machinery, repeatedly fail to grasp the depth of his methods. Many overestimate their ability to outshine or outplay him, attempting to wrest control from his grip. Yet, as history shows, such efforts invariably fall short. The list is endless; Afikuyomi, Aregbe, Obanikoro, Ashafa, Lai, former Vice President and so on.

One of the most telling examples of Asiwaju's approach can be traced back to 2007, when Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi, a prominent figure in Lagos politics, attempted to assert his political clout. Believing himself to be the most suitable candidate for the governorship, Afikuyomi disregarded advice from Asiwaju's close allies to step aside. Asiwaju, however, endorsed Babatunde Fashola, a relatively unknown figure at the time. This decision was met with skepticism from within the party, with many fearing it could lead to electoral defeat.

Fashola not only won but went on to govern Lagos for eight years, earning widespread acclaim for his effective administration. Asiwaju had, once again, proven his ability to see potential where others saw risk.

The pattern repeated in subsequent elections. In 2015, Asiwaju chose Akinwunmi Ambode, another politically unpopular figure, over a pool of established and well-regarded candidates. Ambode's candidacy was ridiculed, and many within the party assumed the election would be an easy win for the opposition. Yet, like Fashola before him, Ambode not only secured victory but delivered a tenure marked by efficient governance.

In 2019, Asiwaju took yet another calculated gamble, endorsing Babajide Sanwo-Olu, whose political résumé was modest at best. Sanwo-Olu’s opponents dismissed him as unqualified, but under Asiwaju’s tutelage, he ascended to the governorship and is now serving a second term.

Asiwaju's selection criteria for gubernatorial candidates reveal a deliberate strategy. Rather than favoring those with significant political muscle or public popularity, he opts for candidates who are underestimated or overlooked. This approach appears to minimize internal competition and ensures loyalty. Asiwaju’s nominees often enter office with a sense of indebtedness, strengthening his hold on power while allowing him to shape governance from behind the scenes.

If an outsider like me can discern this trend, why do Asiwaju’s long-time allies, who are much closer to his political operations, fail to recognize it?

The recent gubernatorial aspirations of the two-term Speaker of the Lagos State Assembly epitomize this disconnect. After 14 years in the Assembly, the Speaker’s decision to enter the race suggests either a profound misreading of Asiwaju’s playbook or an overestimation of his own political leverage. Asiwaju’s history demonstrates a clear disinterest in candidates with significant political muscle—particularly those whose ambitions could challenge his influence.

If Asiwaju has consistently bypassed political heavyweights in favor of lesser-known figures, why would the Speaker expect a different outcome? His decision to challenge Asiwaju’s established pattern seems more like a gamble than a calculated move, and history suggests the odds are not in his favor.

Lagos State politics offers a fascinating study of power, loyalty, and strategy. Asiwaju's enduring dominance lies in his ability to see beyond the obvious, selecting candidates who align with his vision while ensuring his continued influence.

For those within Asiwaju’s orbit, there is a lesson in humility and self-awareness: history does not favor those who ignore its patterns. For those observing from the periphery, Asiwaju's political mastery remains both a marvel and a mystery, reminding us that true power often operates in ways unseen and unacknowledged.